The literature on the impact of research output on economic growth has been rapidly
expanding. However, the single growth processes of technological laggard countries and the
mediating roles of human capital and structural change have been overlooked.
Resorting to cointegration analyses and Granger causality tests for Portugal over the last
40 years (1980-2019) four main results are worth highlighting: (1) in the long-run, global and
hard sciences (life sciences, physical sciences, engineering and technology, social sciences)
research outputs are positively and significantly associated to economic growth; (2) in the
short-run, global, hard sciences and soft sciences (base clinical, pre-clinical and health, arts
and humanities) foster economic growth; (3) important (long and short-run) mismatches
between human capital and scientific production emerged, with the years of schooling
mitigating the positive impact of research output on economic growth; (4) structural change
processes favouring industry amplify the positive (long-run) association and (short-run) impact
of research output on economic growth.
