The study examined the effects of the economic performance of Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom on Portuguese exports from the first quarter of 2003 to the second quarter of 2024. A series of econometric methodologies were utilized in the analysis, encompassing the Jarque-Bera test, panel unit root tests, Gregory-Hansen cointegration tests, error correction models, Granger causality tests, and impulse response functions. The objective of this comprehensive approach was to ascertain short-run and long-run relationships. The primary findings indicated a substantial long-term impact of German GDP on Portuguese exports, demonstrating the highest structural sensitivity. In contrast, the US exhibited the fastest dynamic adjustment speed (agility), while the effect of the UK's economy was smaller in magnitude and slower to correct, reflecting its vulnerability to structural shocks such as Brexit. The analysis at the sector level further indicated that various adjustment speeds were evident across export categories. The results of the study provide policymakers with a valuable set of information regarding the necessity of monitoring the macroeconomic situations of their major trading partners, building trade resilience, and formulating improved strategic plans.
Asymmetric Impacts: German, US, and UK Economic Performance on Portuguese Exports.pdf
