- Número: 169
- Autor(es): João Capella-Ramos | Romina Guri
- Mês: Setembro
- Ano: 2022
The COVID-19 crisis has severely impacted firms across the world, with some showing greater resilience than others. Engaging in international markets, in particular, increases firms’ exposure to such a global adverse shock, while also providing firms with opportunities for resilience-enhancing responses to the crisis. Operating in a small open economy, Portuguese firms were particularly vulnerable to disruptions in international trade and global value chains. In this paper we investigate how Portuguese exporting firms have adapted their business activities on the back of the COVID-19 crisis, and whether these adaptations depended on their intrinsic characteristics, notably firm size. Furthermore, we analyse the role of government support measures taken in response to the COVID-19 crisis in the adaptation processes of both exporting and domestic firms. We use the recently available Fast and Exceptional Enterprise Survey – COVID-19 (‘Inquérito Rápido e Excecional às Empresas’, COVID-IREE) and complement it with balance sheet data from the Integrated Corporate Accounts System (‘Sistema de Contas Integradas das Empresas’, SCIE), covering a sample of approximately 7,000 Portuguese firms. The results suggest that exporting firms were more likely to adapt their business activities in the face of the COVID-19 crisis. We also found evidence that the adaptation processes of exporting firms tended to be multi-dimensional, operating through different adaptation mechanisms, and contingent upon firm size. The results also suggest that government support measures have enhanced the likelihood of both exporting and domestic firms to adapt, providing evidence of their effectiveness and highlighting the importance of firm-oriented policies that promote economic resilience.
- Número: 168
- Autor(es): Natália Barbosa
- Mês: Setembro
- Ano: 2022
This paper assesses the causal relationship between outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and various sides of firm performance, using micro data from Portuguese manufacturing firms during 2006-2012 and 2017-2020. Our analysis shows that the learning effects for Portuguese parent firms depend on the underlying outward FDI strategy. In particular, those learning effects seem to be mostly visible when firms engage in vertical outward FDI. Further, vertical or horizontal outward FDI appear to enhance the integration of Portuguese firms into the global economy through increased export intensity. Overall, the findings supports the argument that outward FDI can indeed be at root of upgrading performance and firm’s restructuring in a small, open and peripheral economy such as Portugal. Nonetheless, the capability to be resilient and deal with sudden and external shocks - such as COVID-19 pandemic - is not supported by the available preliminary data.
- Número: 167
- Autor(es): Catarina Branco | Dirk C. Dohse | João Pereira dos Santos | José Tavares
- Mês: Setembro
- Ano: 2022
This paper uses micro-level data encompassing the universe of Portuguese private firms for
the period 2006-2016 to analyse the effect of the introduction of tolls on previously toll-free
highways. To establish causality, we rely on a natural experiment which resulted from
Portuguese authorities being forced to in- crease these transportation costs in some highways
during the sovereign debt crisis. Difference-in-differences results show a 10.7% decrease of
turnover in firms located in affected municipalities vis-à-vis firms in the remaining areas, on
average. Firm profits were also severely hit and reduced by more than 15%. Both sales and
purchases to/from the internal market and abroad (especially to/from EU countries) were
affected. Furthermore, employment reduced 2% in treated areas. Importantly, our findings do
not uncover induced inter-regional firm migration, suggesting that the tolls have induced a
substantial net loss to the Portuguese economy.
- Número: 166
- Autor(es): Maria José Sousa
- Mês: Julho
- Ano: 2022
Digital technologies and public policies are fundamental for cities to define their urban greening strategies, and the main goal of this research is to identify in the literature and official documents the applied digital technologies and the public policies dimensions implemented at the national level by the member states to promote urban greening. The methodology used is a Systematic Literature Review (based on international studies), a Delphi study with experts, and a Policy Analysis, to understand how the Portuguese government has implemented policies and which are the main applied technologies to urban greening. The main findings are regarding (i) the focus on the interaction of actors in policymaking. (ii) Interpretive approaches examine the application of technologies in urban greening problems; and (iii) how policies reflect the social construction of 'problems'.
- Número: 165
- Autor(es): Marta Candeias | Nuno Boavida | António Brandão Moniz
- Mês: Julho
- Ano: 2022
Recent developments in automation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are leading to a wave of innovation in organizational design and changes in the workplace. Techno-optimists even named it the ‘second machine age’, arguing that it now involves the substitution of the human brain. Other authors see this as just a continuation of previous ICT developments. Potentially, automation and AI can have significant technical, economic, and social implications in firms. The paper will answer the question: what are the implications on industrial productivity and employment in the automotive sector with the recent automation trends, including AI, in Portugal? Our approach used mixed methods to conduct statistical analyses of relevant databases and interviews with experts on R&D projects related to automation and AI implementation. Results suggest that automation can have widespread adoption in the short term in the automotive sector, but AI technologies will take more time to be adopted.
- Número: 163
- Autor(es): Anabela M. Santos | Javier Barbero Jimenez | Simone Salotti | Andrea Conte
- Mês: Julho
- Ano: 2022
We assess the effect of digitalisation on employment for the European Union countries, and Portugal in particular, using data for the 1995-2019 period. We estimate an augmented labour demand function derived from a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) cost function to test for a capital-labour substitution effect, distinguishing between digital and traditional capital. The results point towards a positive impact of digital investments on total employment, but the effects are heterogeneous depending on the different employment categories. In particular, high-skilled jobs benefit from digitalisation at the expense of medium- and low-skilled ones.
- Número: 164
- Autor(es): Joana Costa | Luís Carvalho
- Mês: Julho
- Ano: 2022
Promoting entrepreneurship has become a government priority worldwide. At the same time, digital technology has been embraced by governmental authorities, particularly focusing on digital infrastructure and online service provision. In this paper, we explore whether there might be a connection between both policy ambitions – notably at the local level. To do so, we empirically assess the relationship between different dimensions of government digitalization and entrepreneurial dynamics, using panel data from 278 Portuguese municipalities between 2014 and 2019, primarily drawn from the Portuguese survey on government ICT deployment (IUTIC) and analyzed through compared regression models. Results suggest an overall positive effect of digital government efforts on entrepreneurship.
- Número: 162
- Autor(es): Natália Barbosa | Ana Paula Faria
- Mês: Julho
- Ano: 2022
Digital technologies have the scope to engender positive effects on productivity at firm and aggregate level. However, empirical evidence and theoretical contributions are ambiguous as mixed findings and diverse explanations have been put forward. We use a rich and representative sample of Portuguese firms over the period 2014-2019 to empirically assess the relationship between digital technologies adoption and productivity. Based on estimations over the entire distribution of firm’s productivity, we find that heterogeneous digital technologies affect differently the dynamics of productivity and the convergence to the frontier. This leads to mixed findings with scope to diverse impact in the aggregate productivity.
- Número: 161
- Autor(es): António Portugal Duarte, Fátima Sol Murta
- Mês: Maio
- Ano: 2022
The aim of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic in the European Union (27 countries) and, particularly, in four of its economies – Germany, Spain, Italy and Portugal. For this purpose, a counterfactual analysis was conducted based on an ARIMA forecasting model through which the behavior of a set of macroeconomic variables (Gross Domestic Product, public debt, inflation rate, public deficit, and unemployment rate) is examined in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic against a hypothetical scenario without pandemic. In general, the results point to a significantly better performance of all variables in the four countries and in the European Union if the Covid-19 pandemic had not existed.
- Número: 160
- Autor(es): Carlos Oliveira
- Mês: Maio
- Ano: 2022
Over the last three decades, wage inequality and the importance of the minimum wage presented an interesting negative correlation in Portugal. Using a semiparametric approach, counterfactual decomposition methods, and an extremely rich matched employer-employee dataset of all employees in the country, this paper presents significant visual and quantitative evidence of how the minimum wage structurally reshaped the wage distribution. The remarkable rise in the real minimum wage of 2006-2019 fully explained the sharp decline in wage inequality, and 40% of average wage growth - for women, who benefited the most, that was 60%. Spillover effects reached up to 40% above the minimum, being at times more important than the bite itself. The minimum wage reduced within and between wage in- equality in several fronts, cutting the gender wage gap by a quarter, potentially decreasing the returns to education, and raising wages of workers at less productive firms. While the minimum wage bite was felt in workers’ base wages, spillovers predominantly manifested in total wages.
