- Número: 126
- Autor(es): José M. Belbute e Alfredo M. Pereira
- Mês: Agosto
- Ano: 2019
We provide reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from burning fuel fossil and cement production in Portugal based on an ARFIMA model approach and using annual data from 1950 to 2017. Our "business as usual" projections suggest a pattern of decarbonization that will cause the reduction of 3.3 Mt until 2030 and 5.1 Mt between 2030 and 2050. This scenario allows us to assess effort required by the new IPCC goals to ensure carbon neutrality by 2050. For this objective to be achieved it is necessary for emissions to be reduced by 39.6 Mt by 2050. Our results suggest that of these, only 8.4 Mt will result from the inertia of the national emissions system. The remaining reduction on emissions of 31.2 Mt of CO2 will require additional policy efforts. Accordingly, our results suggest that about 79% of the reductions necessary to achieve IPCC goals require deliberate policy efforts. Finally, the presence in the data of long memory with mean reversion suggests that policies must be persistent to ensure that these reductions in emissions are also permanent.
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- Número: 127
- Autor(es): Alfredo Marvão Pereira e Rui Manuel Pereira
- Mês: Agosto
- Ano: 2019
This article examines the economic, budgetary, distributional and environmental impacts of the interaction between regulated early closure of coal-fired power plants and new energy taxation rules on fossil fuel-operated power plants using a multi-sector and multi-household dynamic general equilibrium model of the Portuguese economy. Simulation results show first that regulated early closures will lead to meaningful reductions in emissions. They will also induce significant detrimental macroeconomic and distributional effects. Second, when the new energy taxation rules are applied to the coal-operated power plants no significant environmental gains or macroeconomic or distributional losses are observed in addition to what already induced by the forced closures.
- Número: 125
- Autor(es): José Belbute e Alfredo Marvão Pereira
- Mês: Agosto
- Ano: 2019
We use an ARFIMA approach to develop reference scenario projections for CO2 emissions worldwide and for seven different regions. Our objective is to determine the magnitude of the policy efforts necessary to achieve the IPCC emissions reductions goals. For worldwide emissions, the aggregate policy effort required to achieve the 2050 goals is equivalent to 97.4% of 2010 emissions. This policy effort is frontloaded as about 60% of such efforts would have to occur by 2030. In order to achieve the IPCC target the policy efforts in the cases of the USA, EU(28), Russia, and Japan - which account for 32% of worldwide emissions, are lower and less frontloaded than the IPCC goals themselves. In the case of China, India and the ROW, which account for 68% of worldwide emissions, additional policy efforts are necessary to achieve reductions in emissions of 105.0%, 156.0% and 111.4%, of the 2010 levels, respectively. In the case of India, policy efforts are not only rather severe but also rather dramatically frontloaded, as about 74% of the policy efforts would have to occur by 2030. Our results suggest that the policies toward decarbonization must consider the specific regional characteristics of emissions. Given the differences in the inertia of emissions in the different regions a one-size fits all approach is not the best approach.
- Número: 124
- Autor(es): João Pereira dos Santos e Judite Gonçalves
- Mês: Agosto
- Ano: 2019
Increasing obesity-related problems and rising healthcare expenditures have led governments in developed countries to consider the introduction of soda taxes. We study a recent such tax, implemented in Portugal, using extremely detailed panel data from one of the two largest retailers in the country, covering the period between February 2015 and January 2018. We take advantage of the tax breakdown by sugar levels to examine how soda prices and quantities purchased reacted. For identifcation, we rely on difference-in-differences models with various vectors of fixed effects, comparing each group of products to water.
- Número: 123
- Autor(es): Rui Marvão Pereira and Alfredo Marvão Pereira
- Mês: Junho
- Ano: 2019
Renewable energy production subsidies alleviate the pressure on electricity prices associated with carbon and energy pricing policies in the process of decarbonization and electrification of the Portuguese economy. Our simulation results show that a feed in tariffs financed by a carbon tax leads to adverse macroeconomic as well as adverse and regressive distributional welfare effects. On the flip side, however, we show that use of the carbon tax revenues to finance a feed in tariff is an improvement over the simple carbon tax case along all the relevant policy dimensions. The feed in tariff mechanism when added to the carbon tax leads to better environmental outcomes at lower costs both in terms of the economic and social justice implications. The policy implications are clear. First, because of its adverse economic and distributional effects a carbon tax should not be used in isolation. The use of the revenues to finance a feed in tariff dominates the simple carbon tax case in all dimensions. Second, the search for the appropriate recycling mechanisms in addition to feed in tariffs is an issue as relevant as the carbon tax itself as it pertains to the potential reversal of the adverse effects of such a tax.
- Número: 122
- Autor(es): Ricardo Ferraz
- Mês: Junho
- Ano: 2019
A Grande Guerra (1914-1918) e a Guerra Colonial (1961-1974) foram, sem dúvida, os dois conflitos bélicos mais importantes para Portugal no seu passado recente, tendo a sua despesa militar atingido valores recorde durante esses acontecimentos. De acordo com as estimativas apresentadas no presente estudo, o Estado português terá despendido com estas guerras - a preços de hoje, e na moeda actual -, 26,5 mil milhões de euros. Deste montante, 82% terá sido gasto com a Guerra Colonial e 18% com a Grande Guerra. Ao se disponibilizarem pela primeira vez valores concretos sobre os custos dos dois principais conflitos militares em que Portugal se envolveu no século XX, espera-se oferecer um valioso contributo à História Contemporânea de Portugal e estimular outros trabalhos de investigação sobre estes temas.
- Número: 121
- Autor(es): Anabela Santos, Michele Cincera, Paulo Neto and Maria Manuel Serrano
- Mês: Maio
- Ano: 2019
A wide range of empirical studies have analyzed which firm characteristics influence government evaluators on the decision to select specific firms for participating in Research and Development and Innovation subsidy programs. However, few authors have provided a precise analysis about the selection process of submitted applications for a public support. The aim of the present paper is to assess the effectiveness in the selection process and to understand which kind of projects are selected for being subsidized. The analysis is focused on the case study of applications submitted to the Portuguese Innovation Incentive System (SI Innovation) between 2007 and 2013. Once the selection criterion for accessing to this program is essentially based on competitiveness, namely in terms of internationalization and productivity, special attention was given on assessing the determinants of selection process regarding to these topics. Using a counterfactual analysis and Propensity Score Matching estimators, results show that the selection process to SI Innovation is more focused on expecting an increase of the internationalization and productivity of firms than in the efficiency of public expenditures and firm innovativeness. The conclusions of this paper could be useful for policy makers, once it identifies some failures in selection process, which according to other authors, could explain some disappointing results of public intervention in this field.
- Número: 120
- Autor(es): Guida Nogueira e Paulo Inácio
- Mês: Abril
- Ano: 2019
On June, 2016 the UK decided to leave the EU. The departure date was originally scheduled for March 29, 2019 but the process reached an impasse as the withdrawal agreement, that was negotiated with the European Union, failed to get parliamentary approval. The EU agreed to offer the UK a flexible extension of the Brexit deadline until October 31, but the risk of a no-deal scenario still exists. Since there is no precedent of a Member State withdrawing from the European Union, the implications of Brexit for the EU countries are still highly uncertain. However, countries and industries that have deep economic ties, in terms of international integration, to the UK are the most vulnerable to this departure. In this work we will use trade in value added statistics from OECD-WTO TiVA database4 and related indicators to depict how exposed and thus vulnerable is Portugal and its sectors to the UK market, delivering a useful contribute for assessing potential impacts of Brexit on the Portuguese Economy.
- Número: 118
- Autor(es): Frederico Oliveira Torres
- Mês: Abril
- Ano: 2019
For Melitz (2003), the driving force behind a firm’s decision to export is productivity. If firms pass the productivity cut-off, they all export. Nonetheless, empirical studies show that a substantial share of high-productive firms do not export. Using a dataset that covers Portuguese non-financial firms, between 2010 and 2016, we assess which factors determine the export decision, besides productivity. According to our results, firm’s characteristics, such as size, turnover, import as well as export status, age, worker skills and knowledge agglomeration, are crucial in the process of internationalisation of firms.
- Número: 119
- Autor(es): Guida Nogueira e António Portugal Duarte
- Mês: Abril
- Ano: 2019
Na era do “Made in the World” o valor bruto das exportações que atravessa a fronteira nacional é uma medida cada vez mais imperfeita do rendimento doméstico envolvido, comprometendo, por isso, a leitura de todos os indicadores de comércio externo derivados. A literatura económica tem feito grandes progressos para desenvolver um quadro de referência metodológico que isole devidamente o papel de cada país no contexto das Cadeias de Valor Globais (CVGs) e são já vários os projetos que, capitalizando estes contributos teóricos, procederam à construção de bases de dados multi-país a partir de matrizes input-output globais harmonizadas que identificam os recursos e empregos da produção na economia, com desagregação por setores de bens e serviços e países parceiros. Este trabalho utiliza a informação de comércio internacional em valor acrescentado, recentemente compilada pela OCDE-OMC, para (i) analisar a dinâmica da especialização produtiva portuguesa, no contexto das CVGs, com base no tradicional Índice de Vantagens Comparativas Reveladas (IVCR) de Balassa, considerando para efeitos de cálculo três tipos de fluxos no período 1995-2011 e (ii) discutir a validade da teoria clássica e neoclássica das vantagens comparativas no contexto das CVGs. Os dados confirmam que a utilização das estatísticas em valor acrescentado nacional é de facto muito relevante do ponto de vista da avaliação das capacidades com que Portugal se apresenta nas Cadeias de Valor Globais e sugerem que a estrutura setorial das vantagens comparativas reveladas para Portugal, no contexto das CVGs, obedece à teoria clássica e neoclássica do comércio internacional.
