Seminários GEE
- Autor(es): Chiara Criscuolo, Peter Gal e Francesco Losma
- Ano: 2021
To understand the effects of teleworking arrangements on firm productivity and worker well-being, the OECD Global Forum on Productivity has conducted an online survey among more than 1,300 private sector managers and 3,400 private and public sector workers in 23 OECD countries along with Brazil and Malaysia. The survey reveals that a large majority of respondents consider their experience with telework positive. The main reasons, according to managers, are that they find that workers work more and more productively; and workers consider the opportunity to save on commuting costs and time as a key benefit of telework. However, both groups recognise that telework carries important risks as well: managers believe telework could lead to the reduction of knowledge flows, learning, and loyalty within the company, hurting innovation in the longer run; while workers stress the risk of feeling isolated and to some of them career progression could suffer. Given the important trade-offs involved in telework, both workers and managers agree that it would be preferable, from the point of view of company performance and individual well-being, to achieve an optimal balance of 2 to 3 regular teleworking days per week for a large proportion of the workforce. To maximise benefits and minimise drawbacks, both managers and workers consider that the coordination of on-site presence schedules will be crucial, to ensure that there are sufficient in-person interactions. Governments should play a role as well, by enabling telework in both urban and rural areas (through the removal of ICT bottlenecks), empowering managers and employees with skills enhancement and supporting infrastructures (notably related to childcare), and protecting employees from the risk of an excessive amount of telework (especially when performed in inadequate conditions).
"Chiara Criscuolo is the head of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship Division in the Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation at the OECD. Mainly, her work focuses on entrepreneurship, enterprise dynamics, productivity and policy evaluation. In this realm, she has coordinated large cross-country microdata projects on employment dynamics, productivity, as well as research and development. Chiara has played a lead role in advancing the use of firm level data and of microdata projects within the OECD. She has contributed to key horizontal and high level projects and publications, including the OECD volumes “Future of Productivity”, “New sources of growth: Knowledge Based capital”, and the “OECD Innovation Strategy”. She co-manages the Global Forum on Productivity is also a member of the French and Portuguese National Productivity Boards. Ahead of joining the OECD, Chiara received her doctoral degree in Economics from University College London and held academic appointments at the University of Siena, City University and the University of Cambridge, in addition to the London School of Economics.
Peter Gal is senior economist for the Global Forum on Productivity in the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD). He has been working on micro- and macroeconomic aspects of productivity, in particular on the role of differences among firms for aggregate performance. He also worked on labour market issues, focusing on the role of startups in job creation as well as on the role of structural changes – especially digitalisation and globalisation – and of public policies for potential growth. Throughout his career, he worked in various departments of the OECD as well as at the International Monetary Fund and initially at the Central Bank of Hungary. He holds a PhD and an MPhil degree in Economics from the Tinbergen Institute in Amsterdam and a university degree in Economics from Corvinus University of Budapest.
Francesco Losma is a consultant for the OECD Global Forum on Productivity, where he contributes to a strand of research investigating the effect of teleworking arrangements on firms’ productivity and workers’ well-being. He is also a graduate Research and Teaching Assistant in International Economics at Bocconi University. His research interests include Productivity, Macroeconomics, and International Trade. Francesco holds a MSc Degree in Economics and Social Sciences from Bocconi University."
slides: GEE Meeting for website (1).pdf
- Autor(es): Francisco Augusto e Márcio Mateus
- Ano: 2021
Neste estudo analisamos o impacto da pandemia de COVID-19 na dívida das empresas vulnerárias. Uma empresa é definida como financeiramente vulnerável se os resultados operacionais não superarem em pelo menos duas vezes o montante de juros suportados. Com esta definição, estimamos um aumento de 9 p.p. da dívida associada a empresas em vulnerabilidade financeira em 2020, que totaliza 31% do total da dívida das empresas portuguesas. Para 2021 e 2022, estimamos uma diminuição da dívida associada às empresas vulneráveis que será tanto menor quanto maior for a intensidade e a duração do choque económico. A proporção de dívida financeira associada a empresas em vulnerabilidade deverá, no entanto, ficar aquém dos valores máximos observados no contexto da crise da dívida soberana. Os setores de atividade para os quais estimamos maiores aumentos dos níveis de vulnerabilidade são a indústria transformadora, o comércio e o alojamento e restauração "Francisco Augusto é economista no Departamento de Estabilidade Financeira do Banco de Portugal desde 2013. Tem desenvolvido trabalho de análise de riscos e vulnerabilidades à estabilidade financeira no setor privado não financeiro, com principal foco nas empresas. Do seu percurso profissional consta ainda a passagem pelo Departamento de Supervisão Prudencial do Banco de Portugal em 2012. É licenciado e mestre em Economia pela Católica Lisbon SBE e pós-graduado em Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision pela Nova SBE. É também estudante de doutoramento em Finanças na Nova SBE.
Márcio Mateus é economista no Departamento de Estabilidade de Financeira do Banco de Portugal desde 2015, onde tem desenvolvido trabalho de análise de riscos para a estabilidade financeira com origem nos sectores não financeiros da economia. Do seu percurso profissional constam ainda passagens pela área da Balança de Pagamentos do Departamento de Estatística do Banco de Portugal, entre 2010 e 2015, e pela KPMG Portugal, entre 2008 e 2010. É licenciado em Economia pela Universidade de Coimbra, mestre em Econometria Aplicada e Previsão pelo ISEG e pós-graduado em Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision pela Nova SBE."
slide: A vulnerabilidade financeira e a dívida em excesso_GEE_GPEARI.pptx
- Autor(es): João Leitão
- Ano: 2021
This study assesses the non-linear effects of green bonds, conventional bonds and energy commodities on the behaviour of the cap-and-trade European Union carbon market (EUETS). By estimating four models, using Markov-Switching (MS) econometric methodology, non-linearities are confirmed in dynamic behaviours, observing in the global calculation a positive effect of green bonds (S&P Green and Sol Green) on the carbon market, in regimes of both high and low volatility, while conventional bonds (S&P Agg) and energy commodities (DJCI En) contribute to a decrease in the carbon market in regimes of high volatility. The relevance of green bonds is underlined in determining the behaviour of the carbon market, besides observing greater persistence of the low volatility regime. These results allow both investors and fund managers, to implement strategies in different volatility or economic activity contexts, through a diversified portfolio and green/climate structure.
- Autor(es): Carolina Nunes
- Ano: 2021
In this paper, we use administrative data from a Eurozone country characterized by a sharp pandemic crisis, a segmented labor market, and a generous coverage of furlough schemes to obtain causal estimates of the impact of the pandemic crisis on jobless claims, on job placements and on the reasons that motivated the jobless claim, during the first six months of the pandemic, i.e., between March and August 2020, and to uncover the uneven impacts of the crisis in the workforce. Covering the universe of individuals formally registered as unemployed in 278 Portuguese municipalities, we employ event study difference-in-differences and document a large causal impact on jobless claims: the year-on-year growth rates increase by 39 and 38 percentage points in June and July, respectively. New job placements drop significantly, especially in April. We also use triple difference-in-differences to show that individuals up to 34 years old and with secondary education fell more into unemployment. Female labor market prospects are worsened by the pandemic, with an additional 17.5% drop in new job placements of women compared to men. The heterogeneous effects on unemployment were accentuated in municipalities with a higher share of temporary workers.
- Autor(es): Tiago Domingues
- Ano: 2021
Backward and forward integration are growing in most sectors across the European Union (EU). To benefit from this increasing participation in Global Value Chains (GVC), the increase in imports should be followed by adequate growth in exports. The external dependency of many industries and the corresponding low domestic value-added generated in production, combined with relatively weak export potential can cause high trade deficits and growing external debt to GDP ratios. This paper evaluates the inter- industry participation in GVCs considering eight different EU economies and 25 tradable sectors. Based on Input- Output production multipliers and intermediate import coefficients, we propose an empirical method to assess the evolution of vertical specialization, domestic value-added generation and external dependency. After a convenient arrangement of the Leontief inverse matrix, the evolution of backward linkage indicators can be used to detect structural changes, particularly quantifying a "net growth effect" and an "external dependency effect". This method allows the classification of each sector into different areas considering their recent structural evolution and it can be useful as a simple, but suggestive, device to compare different economies in a given period or assess their structural development processes in time. A detailed comparison of one EU periphery country (Portugal) and one EU core country (Germany) is made, based on WIOD data for the period 2000-2014, followed by a brief presentation of six other cases (Austria, Check Republic, Belgium, Finland, Greece, and Netherlands). Particular attention is given to differences within and between countries before and after the global financial crisis.
- Autor(es): Sandra Marques Pereira
- Ano: 2021
O inquérito foi realizado entre final de Julho e princípio de Outubro e teve duas partes: 1. Caracterização do Perfil dos titulares e estrutura da atividade; 2.Impactos da COVID. Quanto ao primeiro ponto destaca-se: a) o predomínio dos titulares com um número muito reduzido de AL e dos Empresários em Nome Individual; b) grande dependência económica da atividade; c) elevado nível de escolaridade e média elevada de idades; d) grande diversidade regional. Ao nível dos impactos, salienta-se que, não obstante as elevadíssimas perdas em matéria de ocupação e especialmente de faturação, com incidência mais evidente em Lisboa e Porto, os inquiridos revelam grande optimismo quando ao horizonte temporal de normalização da situação, e a maioria tem intenções de, pelo menos a curto prazo, manter-se no Alojamento de Curta Duração.
- Autor(es): António Rua
- Ano: 2021
The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has spread worldwide causing unprecedented disruptions in the economies. These unparalleled changes in economic conditions made clear the urgent need to depart from traditional statistics to inform policy responses. Hence, the interest in tracking economic activity in a timely manner has led economic agents to rely on high-frequency data as traditional statistics are released with a lag and available at a lower frequency. Naturally, taking on board such a novel data involves addressing some of the complexities of high frequency data (e.g. marked seasonal patterns or calendar effects). Herein, we propose a daily economic indicator (DEI), which can be used to assess the behavior of economic activity during the lockdown period in Portugal.
The DEI - Tracking economic activity daily during the lockdown.pdf
- Autor(es): Carlos Figueira e Ricardo Pinheiro Alves
- Ano: 2020
Market competition is a key driver for an efficient allocation of resources and thus to sustained economic growth and higher aggregate welfare. Portugal implemented significant policy reforms during the difficult period 2010-2016 to improve the level of competition and flexibility in the product and labour markets. This paper measures the evolution of price-cost margins in 158 markets during these years and the results present a stability pattern and provide evidence of imperfectly competitive markets. This seems to indicate that both the market power of firms did not change and competition did not improve significantly. Nevertheless, the sizeable decrease of the estimated parameter for labour market frictions may be interpreted as the policy reforms leading to a reduction in workers’ bargaining power. This decrease of workers' bargaining power was more pronounced on the markets with lower bargaining power levels.
- Autor(es): GEE/ANACOM
- Ano: 2020
O Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) e a Autoridade Nacional de Comunicações (ANACOM) abriram uma Call for Papers sobre “Telecomunicações e Digitalização na Economia”, a qual teve como objetivo incentivar a realização de estudos que permitam a identificação de problemas e a implementação de soluções de política económica em Portugal naquela área.
Concluído o processo de seleção dos artigos e a avaliação dos mesmos pelo júri, iremos realizar a sessão de apresentação dos artigos vencedores conforme programa em anexo.
A sessão terá lugar no dia 11 de dezembro, às 9h30, em formato online, sendo transmitida através da plataforma Zoom em https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84141407204?pwd=YXAzVGg0UkV0NFprQ3NlNkNIeG5yZz09.
Agradecemos toda a colaboração na divulgação desta sessão.
- Autor(es): Mauricio Bussi
- Ano: 2020
The intervention will explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across different economies and labour markets. It will highlight the critical determinants of employment losses and will describe the key features of various recovery plans that are expected to be slow, painful and uncertain. It will also describe policy responses that have been decisive in some instances but also highlight the fact that significant gaps remain. It will conclude by depicting possible elements of how the human-centred approach articulated in the ILO Centenary Declaration for the Future of Work might best be brought to bear on the extraordinary challenges of recovery that the COVID-19 crisis poses to the world of work.
