Seminários GEE
- Autor(es): João Leitão
- Ano: 2021
This study assesses the non-linear effects of green bonds, conventional bonds and energy commodities on the behaviour of the cap-and-trade European Union carbon market (EUETS). By estimating four models, using Markov-Switching (MS) econometric methodology, non-linearities are confirmed in dynamic behaviours, observing in the global calculation a positive effect of green bonds (S&P Green and Sol Green) on the carbon market, in regimes of both high and low volatility, while conventional bonds (S&P Agg) and energy commodities (DJCI En) contribute to a decrease in the carbon market in regimes of high volatility. The relevance of green bonds is underlined in determining the behaviour of the carbon market, besides observing greater persistence of the low volatility regime. These results allow both investors and fund managers, to implement strategies in different volatility or economic activity contexts, through a diversified portfolio and green/climate structure.
- Autor(es): Carolina Nunes
- Ano: 2021
In this paper, we use administrative data from a Eurozone country characterized by a sharp pandemic crisis, a segmented labor market, and a generous coverage of furlough schemes to obtain causal estimates of the impact of the pandemic crisis on jobless claims, on job placements and on the reasons that motivated the jobless claim, during the first six months of the pandemic, i.e., between March and August 2020, and to uncover the uneven impacts of the crisis in the workforce. Covering the universe of individuals formally registered as unemployed in 278 Portuguese municipalities, we employ event study difference-in-differences and document a large causal impact on jobless claims: the year-on-year growth rates increase by 39 and 38 percentage points in June and July, respectively. New job placements drop significantly, especially in April. We also use triple difference-in-differences to show that individuals up to 34 years old and with secondary education fell more into unemployment. Female labor market prospects are worsened by the pandemic, with an additional 17.5% drop in new job placements of women compared to men. The heterogeneous effects on unemployment were accentuated in municipalities with a higher share of temporary workers.
- Autor(es): Tiago Domingues
- Ano: 2021
Backward and forward integration are growing in most sectors across the European Union (EU). To benefit from this increasing participation in Global Value Chains (GVC), the increase in imports should be followed by adequate growth in exports. The external dependency of many industries and the corresponding low domestic value-added generated in production, combined with relatively weak export potential can cause high trade deficits and growing external debt to GDP ratios. This paper evaluates the inter- industry participation in GVCs considering eight different EU economies and 25 tradable sectors. Based on Input- Output production multipliers and intermediate import coefficients, we propose an empirical method to assess the evolution of vertical specialization, domestic value-added generation and external dependency. After a convenient arrangement of the Leontief inverse matrix, the evolution of backward linkage indicators can be used to detect structural changes, particularly quantifying a "net growth effect" and an "external dependency effect". This method allows the classification of each sector into different areas considering their recent structural evolution and it can be useful as a simple, but suggestive, device to compare different economies in a given period or assess their structural development processes in time. A detailed comparison of one EU periphery country (Portugal) and one EU core country (Germany) is made, based on WIOD data for the period 2000-2014, followed by a brief presentation of six other cases (Austria, Check Republic, Belgium, Finland, Greece, and Netherlands). Particular attention is given to differences within and between countries before and after the global financial crisis.
- Autor(es): Sandra Marques Pereira
- Ano: 2021
O inquérito foi realizado entre final de Julho e princípio de Outubro e teve duas partes: 1. Caracterização do Perfil dos titulares e estrutura da atividade; 2.Impactos da COVID. Quanto ao primeiro ponto destaca-se: a) o predomínio dos titulares com um número muito reduzido de AL e dos Empresários em Nome Individual; b) grande dependência económica da atividade; c) elevado nível de escolaridade e média elevada de idades; d) grande diversidade regional. Ao nível dos impactos, salienta-se que, não obstante as elevadíssimas perdas em matéria de ocupação e especialmente de faturação, com incidência mais evidente em Lisboa e Porto, os inquiridos revelam grande optimismo quando ao horizonte temporal de normalização da situação, e a maioria tem intenções de, pelo menos a curto prazo, manter-se no Alojamento de Curta Duração.
- Autor(es): António Rua
- Ano: 2021
The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has spread worldwide causing unprecedented disruptions in the economies. These unparalleled changes in economic conditions made clear the urgent need to depart from traditional statistics to inform policy responses. Hence, the interest in tracking economic activity in a timely manner has led economic agents to rely on high-frequency data as traditional statistics are released with a lag and available at a lower frequency. Naturally, taking on board such a novel data involves addressing some of the complexities of high frequency data (e.g. marked seasonal patterns or calendar effects). Herein, we propose a daily economic indicator (DEI), which can be used to assess the behavior of economic activity during the lockdown period in Portugal.
The DEI - Tracking economic activity daily during the lockdown.pdf
- Autor(es): Carlos Figueira e Ricardo Pinheiro Alves
- Ano: 2020
Market competition is a key driver for an efficient allocation of resources and thus to sustained economic growth and higher aggregate welfare. Portugal implemented significant policy reforms during the difficult period 2010-2016 to improve the level of competition and flexibility in the product and labour markets. This paper measures the evolution of price-cost margins in 158 markets during these years and the results present a stability pattern and provide evidence of imperfectly competitive markets. This seems to indicate that both the market power of firms did not change and competition did not improve significantly. Nevertheless, the sizeable decrease of the estimated parameter for labour market frictions may be interpreted as the policy reforms leading to a reduction in workers’ bargaining power. This decrease of workers' bargaining power was more pronounced on the markets with lower bargaining power levels.
- Autor(es): GEE/ANACOM
- Ano: 2020
O Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) e a Autoridade Nacional de Comunicações (ANACOM) abriram uma Call for Papers sobre “Telecomunicações e Digitalização na Economia”, a qual teve como objetivo incentivar a realização de estudos que permitam a identificação de problemas e a implementação de soluções de política económica em Portugal naquela área.
Concluído o processo de seleção dos artigos e a avaliação dos mesmos pelo júri, iremos realizar a sessão de apresentação dos artigos vencedores conforme programa em anexo.
A sessão terá lugar no dia 11 de dezembro, às 9h30, em formato online, sendo transmitida através da plataforma Zoom em https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84141407204?pwd=YXAzVGg0UkV0NFprQ3NlNkNIeG5yZz09.
Agradecemos toda a colaboração na divulgação desta sessão.
- Autor(es): Mauricio Bussi
- Ano: 2020
The intervention will explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across different economies and labour markets. It will highlight the critical determinants of employment losses and will describe the key features of various recovery plans that are expected to be slow, painful and uncertain. It will also describe policy responses that have been decisive in some instances but also highlight the fact that significant gaps remain. It will conclude by depicting possible elements of how the human-centred approach articulated in the ILO Centenary Declaration for the Future of Work might best be brought to bear on the extraordinary challenges of recovery that the COVID-19 crisis poses to the world of work.
- Autor(es): GEE / ANI
- Ano: 2020
O Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) e a Agência Nacional de Inovação (ANI) convidam para a sessão de apresentação dos artigos premiados no âmbito da Call for Papers sobre “I&D e Inovação na Economia Digital”.
- Autor(es): Francisco Rodrigues
- Ano: 2020
We expand the survey on Gazelles by focusing on the Portuguese case. Such firms drive a disproportionally large amount of net job creation, and we examine what sets them apart from their peers in the Portuguese business fabric. Our analysis focus on balance sheet data spanning from 2006 to 2017. The produced evidence suggests the availability of human capital and the young age of the firm contribute to both exceptional and average growth. However, it is the enhanced innovative capacity, the availability of equity, and the exporting status of the firm that might be setting the difference between the average and the exceptional growth performance – thus pointing to nonlinearities in the growth process. The effect of competing in foreign markets is intertwined with the age of the firm. Internationalization is positively associated with exceptional net job creation only for more mature firms. Our results also suggest that the lack of access to adequate external funding was not a hampering factor to high-growth during the period covered. Finally, in line with previous studies, we find no persistency in the process of high-growth, since qualifying as a Gazelle is unlikely to be a recurrent fact over the years for a given firm.
